Fantasize to survive
Last year, personal issues forced me to abandon Fantasy F1 mid-season. In 2025, I set myself an unlikely goal: finish on the podium of the France league.
What is Fantasy F1?
It's a game where you build a team of 5 drivers and 2 constructors within a 100M budget. Points are awarded based on real-life performance, and asset values fluctuate throughout the season. Six chips let you occasionally boost your score: No Negative, Limitless, Autopilot, Wildcard, Final Fix and Extra DRS.
Season opener: belly flop
First Grand Prix, first disaster. 2 DNFs, 37 total points (you'd normally expect scores between 150 and 250), -1.8M$ in value gains, and a measly 13,783rd place in the France league for my main team. It wasn't just the worst season start I'd ever experienced — it was simply the worst race in my entire fantasy career.
On the verge of shelving Fantasy until next season, I remembered my commitment: finish in the top 3. And, naturally, a famous quote came to mind.
You gotta remember this is a marathon, not a sprint, so… Gotta be measured… how aggressive we go.
So, too bad — exit my teams Billevesée and Faribole: everything would ride on team number 3, Baliverne.
Understanding the game to bounce back
The pricing algorithm
After three rounds, the community had figured out the formula being used.
That is, the effective price per million equals the average score over the last three rounds divided by the asset's price. Then, depending on performance, the price change is applied, down to a minimum of 4.5M:
| Performance | Tier A ≥ 18.5M | Tier B < 18.5M |
|---|---|---|
| PPM > 1.2 | + 0.3 | + 0.6 |
| 0.9 < PPM < 1.2 | + 0.1 | + 0.2 |
| 0.6 < PPM < 0.9 | - 0.1 | - 0.2 |
| PPM < 0.6 | - 0.3 | - 0.6 |
What this really means is that the weight of a negative score (DNF) carries over three races. By mastering these numbers, you can know exactly how many points an asset would need to gain or lose value — sometimes with absolute certainty that an asset will get the biggest bonus, or conversely the biggest penalty.
Simulateur de prix
| -0.3 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points requis | ≤ -19 | -19 | -1 | 17 |
Riding the waves
The pricing algorithm works in three-race cycles, and to build your budget, you simply select drivers who are undervalued due to DNFs four races earlier.
The meta for this season was therefore:
- To have a composition with 3 tier-A assets and 5 tier-B assets. Either two tier-A constructors + one tier-A driver (DRS) + 5 tier-B drivers gaining budget, or one constructor + two tier-A drivers, and one constructor + 4 tier-B drivers gaining budget.
- To rotate fillers by exploiting DNFs to buy them at their price floor and sell them at their peak
- All of this to reach a budget allowing two tier-A constructors and two tier-A drivers as quickly as possible
- The best tier-A picks this year were MMCL and MMER for constructors, PPIA, NNOR, VVER and RRUS for drivers.
Budget Evolution (M)
Gains and losses per Grand Prix
Comparing myself to the top 20 average, there's a clear missed wave that forced me to score better with less budget. The culprit: the summer races — Silverstone, Spa-Francorchamps, Hungary.
Tour de France: summer wipeout
Every Grand Prix weekend, I'd take some time between free practice and qualifying to theorycraft my team of choice. It takes a while because there are many factors to consider, including:
- Anticipating price waves to optimize the two changes for the current weekend so I wouldn't get stuck at the next Grand Prix,
- Putting free practice times in perspective with what was being tested (long stints, tire compounds, adjustments between sessions, teammate performance…)
A Silverstone in the pond
On July 6th of this year, I was alone with my kids, and I had the idea to take them to the roadside to watch the Tour de France pass by. They were reluctant at first, then got excited at the last minute.
The Formula 1 race was at 4pm, coinciding with the Tour de France caravan passing through. Caught up in the excitement of the moment, I completely forgot to adjust my team for R12:
- HHAD had overperformed at R9, and was going to lose value at R12 unless he scored at least 12 points — highly unlikely,
- OOCO had overperformed at R10 and R11, and was certain to gain value.
Before FP3, my plan was to go with OBOCO + BEA|+18pts|+1.2M, but I ended up that day with BHBOR + HAD|-40pts|-0.8M (2 × DNF). A net loss of 58 points, 2M$, and all flexibility for the next Grand Prix.
Spa-Francorchamps: descent into hell with the Red Devils
The Belgian Grand Prix, my favorite of the year, was thus stripped of all theorycrafting. I had two assets I couldn't get rid of, HBHAD + BOR, that I absolutely had to drop or lose another 1.2M$. As a reminder, you get two free changes per Grand Prix, and the -20 points from DNFs weigh on three races. The options were so limited that I was forced to make the swap HBHAD + BOR to BGBEA + GAS. GGAS is undoubtedly one of my favorite drivers. But selecting him when his price exceeds 4.5M$ always gives you cold sweats: he drives the worst car on the grid. And a DNF from him in the sprint race sealed this second consecutive Grand Prix with a lovely BGBEA + GAS|-7pts|+0.0M.
Hungary: clearing skies after a gloomy summer
Third and final race impacted by the Tour de France, and for the third consecutive time, my choices were dictated by budget swings rather than free practice analysis. GGAS was going to lose value again and score no points, I had to change him, and due to the cash shortage caused by Silverstone and Spa, I was forced to keep BBEA when AALB was a guaranteed value gainer. Result: BLBEA + LAW|-8pts|-0.6M instead of AAALB + ALO|+29pts|+1.2M.
It's very easy to do this accounting in hindsight. The point isn't to claim that wanting to win my kids some branded caps and bucket hats from the Tour de France caravan definitely cost me 100 points and 4M$. The takeaway is simply that the budget grinding strategy turns against you at the slightest mistake, and one oversight often costs you for 3 Grand Prix.
In the following races, I applied the method flawlessly. Little by little, I climbed back up the standings. And that's when I made a bet.
Verstappen: absolute cinema
While Fantasy F1 is a numbers game, the tight margins between asset prices are what make it truly exciting. That horrible feeling of indecision right before, followed by the lightness right after locking in your team on Saturday. But in the end, the glorious uncertainty of sport prevails. Ultimately, the best moments of the season are when you have a marginal pick that massively overperforms. And in terms of marginal picks, my greatest pride is having anticipated early on that VVER would dominate the end of the season.
Placed in my team with a Final Fix in Baku, he never left it again. Especially not in São Paulo when he was 17th in free practice and 6th in sprint qualifying, where Verstappen pulled off the most spectacular comeback of the season (from a pit lane start to a podium, VVER×2|+126pts|+0.3M). Nor in Qatar, where reason would have dictated putting the Extra DRS on NPNOR + PIA.
By going all-in on VVER, after the penultimate Grand Prix I was 3rd in the France standings, with a mere 4-point lead over 4th place, and very slim chances of holding that position.
Abu Dhabi: the final dilemma
For F1 fans, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix inevitably echoed the decisive 2021 race.
But beyond the sporting aspect, the Fantasy context added another layer. The 4th-place player had the budget to select NVNOR + VER. That pick was the dream choice for a stress-free race. VVER would most likely win the race, and NNOR would most likely be crowned World Champion. One of them would surely grab the 10-point Driver of the Day bonus. And I had saved my Autopilot for this occasion.
That comfort, I couldn't afford. My budget only allowed me to select NPNOR + PIA or VPVER + PIA. And the choice was agonizing:
- If VVER won the race, which I was convinced of, then PPIA would be subject to team orders. For instance, if LLEC had been able to pass NNOR in the final stint, PPIA would surely have been ordered to let LLEC and NNOR through to save the latter's title.
- If, however, NNOR won the race, he was guaranteed to get the Driver of the Day bonus, sealing my fate.
True to my recent convictions, I chose to bet on the driver who had brought me this far, and I lined up VPVER×2 + PIA|+120pts|+0.2M. The only plausible scenario that could let me keep my 3rd place was: VVER 1st, NNOR 2nd, and PPIA 3rd. And, deus ex machina, that is exactly what happened.
Points gap vs top 20
Cumulative difference versus the Top 20 average
Final thoughts
Generally, I use Fantasy F1 to spice up seasons and races that would otherwise feel bland. I've completely stopped watching Drive to Survive, which I find far too scripted. And, much like Advent of Code, I've never managed to build a community of regular players around me. But this year, the stakes were a bit higher.
My final standings are as follows:
- 3rd place in the France league
- 19th place in the LLEC fan league
- 36th place in the FFER fan league
- 95th place worldwide
Could I have done better? Absolutely. But in hindsight, first place in the France league was out of reach, and I wouldn't trade the adrenaline spikes from the end of season for anything in the world. And of course, that lingering taste of unfinished business already makes me want to start again next year, when sporting uncertainty will be, this time, total.
When I look at 2025, the fact of setting a personal goal that seemed unreachable at the start of the season, giving myself the means to achieve it, and getting there at the wire…
In my personal life, things did not go well for a while. And it was hard to see…
It's just nice to win one.